This market research report was originally published at Yole Développement’s website, and is extracted from the “Artificial Intelligence Computing for Automotive 2020 Report.” It is reprinted here with the permission of Yole Développement.
Who are the winners and losers in the race for autonomy? The marriage of AI and computing is at the heart of it.
The market is divided between centralized platforms and vision processors.
The 2025 market for AI, including ADAS and robotic vehicles, is estimated at US$2.75 billion – of which US$2.5 billion will be “ADAS only”.
“AI is gradually invading our lives and this will be particularly true in the automotive world” asserts Yohann Tschudi, PhD, Technology & Market Analyst, Computing & Software at Yole Développement (Yole). “AI could be the central tool to achieve AD, in the meantime some players are afraid of overinflated hype and do not put AI at the center of their AD strategy”.
The players that have grasped this aspect of the technology battle are already leading the race. The impact of COVID-19 is still uncertain, but Yole’s analysts can already affirm that it will have a profound effect – with autonomy-related research likely to slow down at least this year and next due to cash shortages.
In this context, the market research & strategy consulting company Yole releases today its new technology & market analysis: Artificial Intelligence Computing for Automotive 2020 report. In this new analysis, Yole proposes a comprehensive scenario for AI within the dynamics of the autonomous automotive market, and a deep understanding of the AI’s impact on the semiconductor industry. Including ASP , revenue and volume shipments forecasts, a focus on autonomous car, ADAS and robotic vehicles, this report delivers an in-depth understanding of the ecosystem & players. This study also points out key technical insights and analyses into future technology trends and challenges.
What is the status of AI for automotive applications? Who are the players? What relationships exist within the ecosystem? Who will win the “autonomous battle”? Who are the key suppliers to watch, and what technologies do they provide? Yole presents today its vision of the AI computing industry for automotive applications.
For a player like Tesla, which has built all of its autonomous stack internally (software and hardware) and thus holds sole ownership, the strategy of moving forward in small steps will pay off since this strategy is not “side research” but rather an integral part of the Tesla project, just like electrification. In fact, the impact of this crisis will probably accentuate Tesla’s market leadership, which is already estimated at several years. In the second line, analysts find OEMs which develop their own autonomous software stack, but with hardware provided to them by other industry players. Lack of cash can slow down some programs, but others have been active for several years now and will probably not be stopped. And even if they are delayed, autonomy is an integral part of these OEMs’ middle-term strategies – just as it is for Tesla. As for those companies with speculative programs that do not have the quest for autonomy as a cornerstone, it is very likely that these research programs, if they exist, will at best be postponed until the crisis has disappeared completely. These companies will be the big losers in the autonomy race and will have to rely even more on computing players to provide them with full autonomous solutions / functionalities.
As analyzed by Yole’s team in the new Artificial Intelligence Computing for Automotive 2020 report, AI computing dedicated to the automotive market segment is divided between centralized platforms and vision processors.
According Pierrick Boulay, Technology & Market Analyst, Solid-state Lighting at Yole: “We suggest that two paths are available: either a single computer-type NVIDIA or FSD, descending from the high-end segment of robotic vehicles (i.e. the “brain” of a car); or, the number of vision processors incorporating accelerators is multiplied, a path already embraced by several OEMs”.
Competition will arise between these two platforms and determine the revenue. The 2025 market for AI, including ADAS and robotic vehicles, is estimated at US$2.75 billion – of which US$2.5 billion will be “ADAS only”, explains the market research and strategy consulting company, in its new technology & market report.
Yole collaborates with its partner System Plus Consulting to investigate all disruptive technologies related to ADAS applications. Under this context, System Plus Consulting has been recently interviewed by Junko Yoshida, EETIMES about innovations related to Audi A8. A part of this interview details technology advances led by NVIDIA in this domain.
Romain Fraux, CEO of System Plus Consulting explains: “…The processors that make up the platform are NVIDIA Tegra K1 used for traffic signal recognition, pedestrian detection, collision warning, light detection, and lane recognition. Tegra K1 with eight layers of PCBs integrates 192 Cuda cores, the same amount that NVIDIA integrates into a single SMX module inside the Kepler GPUs currently on the market (figure 3) with DirectX 11 and OpenGL 4.4 support.…”. The full article is available on i-Micronews.
“This is only the beginning, and the challenges surrounding AI and its impact on the automotive industry are already being felt,” comments Yohann Tschudi from Yole. Some companies have a considerable lead, and it will be difficult to catch up with them, especially without integrating AI and the computing that goes with it. So, what are the challenges? Who can keep up? And has the impact of COVID-19 and the resulting lack of cash permanently wiped some players off the map?
The market research & strategy consulting company proposes its vision and analysis through its reports, articles and events. Stay tuned!
Throughout the year, Yole Développement publishes numerous software and computing-related reports. The sensing part of the automotive industry, which is linked to the computing one, has also been studied by Yole’s analysts in a dedicated report: Sensing and Computing for ADAS Vehicle 2020. In this analysis, Yole announces attractive market forecasts. Together, both reports give a complete understanding of the automotive industry.
Make sure to be aware of the latest news coming from the industry and get an overview of our activities, including interviews with leading companies, analyses from our experts and dedicated online and onsite events on i-Micronews. In this regard, don’t miss the recorded version of the AI Computing for Automotive: Powering Autonomy webcast.